It's official.  CPA Robert Wagner has once again released his quarterly information on Atlanta's independent restaurants and it's looking like local operators ended the year with a win in fourth quarter.  According to his report, which calls the increase, "a modest bounce" in restaurants sales, 78 posted positive sales gains in the last quarter of the year with 18% saying they had negative sales trends.  On the more exciting news front, nearly one-third or thirty two percent reported double-digit increases in their restaurants sales. 

The survey reviews only independent operators in the fast-casual, casual and fine-dining segments.  He reports restaurants sales volume in the fourth quarter at just over $44 million for the 78 participating restaurants and that's 5.4% ahead of last year for the same time.

The reason this number is good news is that third quarter was looking pretty slow with his last index showing a gain of only 3.7% gain over the prior year.   Quarter by quarter for 2012, he reported restaurants sales as follows:   

• Q1   +6.8%  (Hooray!)
• Q2   +5.0%  (Looking Good)
• Q3   +3.7%  (Oops)
• Q4    +5.4% (Back on Track)

Overall for the year, Wagner has restaurants sales in the Atlanta market ahead of 2011 by 5.1%. 

Is this on par with what the restaurant brokers are hearing in the marketplace?  It's pretty close with talented owners telling us they are hitting double digits.  Others, particularly those outside of the metro area or who are not investing marketing dollars to drive activity are posting closer to flat or only slightly better results.  Reminder:  the restaurants brokers are reporting anecdotal information while the Net Financials data is measured statistically with a similar sample, year over year. 

How do these restaurants sales results compare on a national level?  Well the National Restaurant Association published its prediction for 2012 early last year and pegged the annual increase at only 3.5% versus the 5.1% reported by Atlanta restaurants. 

in addition, due in large part to softer same-store sales and customer traffic levels, the National Restaurant Association’s (NRA) Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) declined in December. The RPI is a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry.  It was at 99.7 in December, down 0.2 percent from November.  By the numbers, Atlanta is looking like a pretty healthy market especially compared to the national scene.   

For 2013, the National Restaurant Association is projecting the year to be stronger with gains of 3.8% nationally.   They see year-end restaurant job growth ahead (trending at plus 3 percent) in 2012, compared to 1.4 percent for overall U.S. employment.  There’s an expectation that this trend line will continue in 2013 meaning that restaurant-industry employment will outperform overall employment for the fourteenth consecutive year.  It is amazing to us as restaurant brokers to see that this industry is expected to employ 13.1 million people, or 10 percent of the U.S. workforce. (1)

According to Robert Wagner, CPA and author of the Atlanta survey, "Q4 2012 shows a modest yet discernible rebound in total Atlanta restaurant industry sales volume. In addition, Q4 revealed more restaurants with positive sales trends and more restaurants with double-digit sales gains than in either Q2 or Q3 2012. The resilience of Atlanta’s restaurant industry is incredible. For 2012 in general and Q4 in particular these established restaurants performed well even though they faced economic uncertainty, rising local unemployment and increased competition. ”

Restaurant broker Eric Gagnon agrees saying, “Every day we are impressed with the passion, dedication and energy that Atlanta restaurant owners bring to the table.  It’s no wonder their results pay off at higher levels than the country as a whole.”

Robert Wagner, CPA is president of NetFinancials, Inc. which provides a full range of tax and accounting services for restaurant companies. Email: bob.wagner@netfinancials.com. www.netfinancials.com Direct: 404-874-7000.

(1)Data is this report is also cited from the National Restaurant Association Forecast 2013 report available for purchase online. The National Restaurant Association (NRA) is the largest foodservice trade association in the world*—supporting nearly 500,000 restaurant businesses.